The power of Moore’s law: Predicting the future | Michio Kaku
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The power of Moore’s law: Predicting the future | Michio Kaku

One way to predict the future is to look at
Moore’s law. Moore’s Law says that computer power doubles
every 18 months. So if you put it on a chart, you can actually
see where certain technologies kicked in and where people were ahead of the game or behind
the eight ball and lost out, by simply looking at Moore’s law. For example, look at IBM. IBM was king of the heap back in the 1950s. But if you look at Moore’s law, you would
basically see that supercomputers would be replaced by cell phones. Your cell phone today has more computer power
than all of NASA in 1969, when they put two men on the moon. That’s the power of Moore’s law. And sure enough, what happened to all the
gigantic computers of IBM? They’re museum pieces, because they didn’t
see the future. What rose up in the ashes? Microsoft. Microsoft saw that, yes, Moore’s law is going
to take us into the realm of personal computers. But even they almost missed the boat. You realize that Bill Gates wrote a bestselling
book, The Road Ahead. He was predicting the future. But if you read the book very carefully, you
realize there’s something missing in that book. And that is the internet. He was predicting a world where we would all
have standalone computers, computers that just stood by themselves, but were very powerful. What are those kinds of computers called? They’re called museum pieces. Nobody, nobody has computers today that are
not connected to the internet. And so Microsoft almost blew it, because they
failed to see the coming of the next entry in Moore’s law, the coming of small computers
that you could put in a cell phone. And they’re connected by the internet. And now, of course, we have yet another revolution
coming, and again, Microsoft is playing catch-up to that. And we’re talking about 5G technology, where
everything is wired up. And it’s just not in a cell phone. It’s basically everywhere, and it’s hooked
up to artificial intelligence. So seeing the feature is actually not so hard. By looking at Moore’s law, you could see then
we would go from the era of mainframes, to the era of PCs, to the era of the internet,
to the era of cell phone five technologies, and next, artificial intelligence. It don’t take a great genius to see that. But so many companies ignore it and think,
we’re number one. Well, yeah, you’re number one temporarily,
because Moore’s law allowed you to become a surfer riding the surf of Moore’s law. But when that surf crests, and the next wave
comes, unless you can see the future, you go bankrupt.


  • Brian Michael

    Funny how 2/3 of this video is talking about things that have next to nothing to do with Moore's Law and fail to mention that Moore's Law is proving to no longer hold true. Pretty big fail, Big Think

  • N Brown

    5G is on for cities and suburbs perhaps but no word on rural yet, milliwaves are smaller and do not travel as far as 4G microwaves. Some of us are lucky enough to have Comcast rural lol and they are saying they will support 5G speeds through cable 😉

  • Wendy Lady

    Moores Law didn't predict how dangerous 5g is for DNA or how it's going to connect humanity into the internet of things becoming the slave master of the 21st Century, if the climate crisis doesn't get us all first.
    Cest la vie. ✌️❤️

  • Shawn

    They missed some fundamental knowledge within the current state of Moore's Law… The transistor will inhibit Moore's Law as we know it. They can only get so small. At 7nm, they are on the atomic scale of things. We will need transistors on the quantum scale or some kind of super optimized CPU architecture to continue with moving forward following Moores's law. Otherwise, electronic hardware will stagnate.

  • chrisose

    Main frame computing hasn't gone anywhere, it has just been renamed. Cloud computing, search engines, Google Maps and the entire concept behind Chromebook are just centralized computing by new names.
    Also Moore's law has been proven wrong over the last several years as computing power has not doubled every 18 months. Of course part of this is because while the processing has gotten faster the programs have blotted to chew up the extra processing capability primarily through the influence of lazy/incompetent factory floor programmers.

  • Rick Malchow

    While Moore's law can tell us an advance is due, to know exactly what it will be you still need your crystal ball or haruspex.

  • Erik S

    Pfft, Kaku is a charlatan. Yes he's smart, but his media personality as "professional smart person" is overblown. He was dissing AI just last year, now it's the future. I'm glad he FINALLY realizes AI is here, but he's more of an actor than a thinker.

  • Zenn Exile


    of feces and wind. Moore only predicted the progression of a specific type of transistor and Moore's Law is highly inaccurate. These technologies are consumer technologies and released on the basis of profit potential. The vast majority of technology is suppressed for years, and even decades, in order to prepare for the most financially beneficial commercial launch. And Bill Gates didn't see any sort of future. He was in the right place at the right time to make a small investment he knew for certain would yield at least double. That's it. He even called several other people he knew to tell them about it because he thought they could make even more out of it being specialists in the field. None of them got back to him so he rolled the dice. That's the entire story. He saw easy money.

  • Dereck Meriton

    maybe this is why microsoft trying very hard to push out arm processor on their latest surface product. going after that 5g, mobility.

  • Albir Tarsha

    He is right that seeing the future is not hard, but timing is the killer. The dot com crash was a big example of this. The Chromebook is basically the same as the net-appliance that failed in the 90's. Timing.

  • John Quill Taylor

    As opposed to "Morris' Law," which says that everything in this world eventually revolves around cat photos . . . – j q t –

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